City v WBA: Paddy Power specials
- 07 May 2013 14:40
- Posted by @porter_mcfc
Check out the latest offers ahead of Tuesday's clash with the Baggies...
With the FA Cup final against Wigan at Wembley this weekend Roberto Mancini may decide to rotate his squad for City’s penultimate home game of the season against West Brom tonight.
Squad rotation could really work in the manager’s favour. Whilst allowing him to rest some players after a long season, the possibility of playing in a cup final at Wembley will be a massive motivation for any players brought in to the starting eleven.
Over the last 120 years the record between City and West Brom is closer than most would expect. In 142 meetings City have won 59 games to West Brom’s 54, with 29 draws.
However, the last seven Premier League meetings have largely gone City’s way with five wins and one draw. The Blues hold a goal advantage of 16 to 5 in those games, keeping four clean sheets.
Having also kept five clean sheets in their last six home games, City to keep a clean sheet tonight at 11/10 looks a solid bet.
There has also been a pattern of City strikers bagging multiple goals in these games. At The Hawthorns in October Edin Dzeko scored a brace in a 2-1 away win. Sergio Aguero scored a brace at home last season and Mario Balotelli scored two while Carlos Tevez scored a hat-trick in alternate games during the 2010/2011 season.
Dzeko is 7/2 to score two or more goals tonight with Aguero and Tevez both priced at 3/1.
All three are good shouts in the first goal-scorer markets, too, where Dzeko can be backed at 4/1 with Paddy Power. Aguero and Tevez are both priced at 7/2 to open the scoring should they start.
In the last three home league games against West Brom, City have won by two goals, then three and then four, in that order. If that pattern continued, the Blues should win tonight’s game by five goals! City to win 5-0 can be backed at the rather profitable 25/1.
That score may be a stretch given West Brom’s solid form this season and the spurious reasoning used to place that bet! However City -2 goals at 5/2 could be a great alternative.
City still need to pick up points to secure second place whilst West Brom seem destined to finish in eighth place, regardless of what happens between now and the end of the season.
In summary and taking into account the Blues’ home record this season plus recent games against West Brom and the carrot of the FA Cup final, this looks like a home win for City at 2/5.